The Hidden Risk

---

Two medtech companies can look identical on paper—

 • Same clinical data

 • Same FDA pathway

 • Same market size

…and have completely different outcomes.

The difference is rarely the technology. It’s how much behavior change is required for adoption.

At a certain point, you’re not underwriting product adoption— you’re underwriting system change.

And system change behaves very differently:

 • timelines extend

 • capital requirements increase

 • forecasts become unreliable

Yet in most deals, this risk is buried inside a single assumption:

 the adoption curve.

Not pressure-tested. Not structured. Just… assumed.

A simple way to expose it:

Evaluate five sources of friction:

 • workflow disruption

 • stakeholder expansion

 • economic alignment

 • training burden

 • infrastructure requirements

Individually manageable. Collectively, they compound.

When friction crosses a threshold, the model doesn’t break immediately— it slowly drifts off plan. And that variance is where a meaningful amount of return is won or lost.

Behavior change risk isn’t missing from diligence— it’s just not translated into something that can be underwritten.

#MedTech #HealthcareInvesting #PrivateEquity #VentureCapital #DueDiligence #ValueCreation #Commercialization #GrifcoStrategy #ThamarrGriffith